The battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of the Iran war. Over the past several months, both Iran and the United States have claimed the upper hand – and the competing rhetoric has caused considerable confusion and doubt.

At the moment, however, the evidence is clear: The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground – and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.

More than 80% of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have taken the Omani route – a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran vehemently opposes – according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data.

Iran, declaring the strait under its control, has attacked dozens of ships that tried to to travel the waterway via the north coast of Oman. Despite the risk, most ships have recently chosen to ignore Iran’s demands and cross the strait with the promise of protection from US naval forces.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.

That stands in stark contrast to a month ago, when Kpler observed virtually no shipping traffic via the Omani route. The sharp reduction in traffic around Iran’s preferred route has prevented Iran from charging tolls on ship traffic through the strait – as it did in the spring.

The expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran this week in theory allows Iran to begin charging tolls again. But it doesn’t appear the country has been able to, according to Kpler.

“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense.”

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude oil Carriers (VLCCs) – the biggest oil tankers – to transit out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, then transfering the oil to customers’ tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

To evade Iran’s attacks, they’ve turned their transponders off, often for weeks on end. That so-called dark traffic appears to have eluded some data-tracking services like Kpler as well. Although some can be picked up on satellite, it’s harder to track via traditional means.

But the United States, with significant military force on the water, has eyes on all ships passing through the strait and has reported significantly higher oil shipping numbers than most traditional estimates had previously suggested.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright last week said that combined oil transits through the strait and rerouted around the waterway totaled around 15 million barrels per day over the course of a week – much closer to the 20-million-barrel average from before the war.

That led President Donald Trump to declare Monday that the United States has “total control over the strait,” a questionable claim he has reiterated often throughout the conflict. Iran’s continued attacks and oil flows still well below pre-war levels suggest the United States does not fully control the Strait of Hormuz.

But neither does Iran.

“If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” said Pickering. “It feels like their goal is deterrence, in order to be validated as in-control. I think they are still deterring.”

But if tankers are really getting as much oil through the strait as the United States claims, then Iran’s deterrence and control of the Strait of Hormuz is diminished compared to what it was a month or two ago.

Complicating matters: Oman and Iran are engaging in talks to restore freedom of navigation through the strait – absent the United States – much to Trump’s dismay. It’s not clear how those discussions will affect oil traffic or control of the waterway.

“I would take all the information and headlines ‘under advisement,’” said Lipow. “But it is fair to say that Iran has partially lost control of the strait.”

Burç Eruygur

• Media reports suggest visit by US envoys to Moscow, Kyiv to revive stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks
• Despite US-mediated talks earlier this year, negotiations have been on hold as Washington’s focus shifts to Mideast

Recent media reports concerning a potential visit by US envoys to Kyiv and Moscow have raised questions about whether Washington can rekindle peace efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Citing an unspecified source, Russian state news agency Tass reported on Aug. 8 that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner may visit Kyiv and Moscow “within a week to 10 days” for talks on the ongoing conflict.

The report came just over a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Axios in an interview that a likely visit to Kyiv by the two US envoys in the next two weeks was an outcome of his meeting with Trump in the White House a day prior.

Witkoff and Kushner have never visited Kyiv, while both envoys conducted several visits to Moscow since US-mediated talks began, the last of which took place on Jan. 22, when they met Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

Reason behind stalled negotiations

Both Russian and Ukrainian authorities have converged on the point that the current pause in peace negotiations are the result of the US focus on Iran and the armed conflict in the Middle East, which began on Feb. 28.

Under US mediation, Russia and Ukraine have held three rounds of peace talks this January and February in a bid to find a settlement for the more-than-four-year war.

The first two rounds of negotiations were held in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on Jan. 23-24 and Feb. 4-5. The second round resulted in an exchange of 157 prisoners of war from each side, marking the first such exchange between Russia and Ukraine in five months.

A third round of US-mediated negotiations took place later that month, on Feb. 17-18, in Geneva, Switzerland, which focused primarily on core issues in the ongoing war, namely territories, but did not result in any breakthrough.

In the weeks that followed, Russia and Ukraine held separate bilateral talks with the US, while acknowledging that trilateral negotiations had been paused as Washington shifted its focus to the war in Iran.

Tehran and Washington have yet to reach a final agreement to end the ongoing confrontation, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy supply chains.

Deadlock caused by different positions

Statements from Kyiv and Moscow continue to shed light on ongoing differences that have caused a deadlock in negotiations.

In the first months of the war in Iran, Russia has reiterated its demand that Ukraine withdraw its military from the industrial Donbas region.

Russian authorities have also accused the US of moving away from what they described as “understandings” reached during Putin and Trump’s summit in Anchorage, Alaska, in August 2025.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in June that Russia had accepted US proposals discussed in Anchorage.

However, Russia has also praised the US and Trump personally for seeking to end the war.

Later that month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied that any agreement was reached between Moscow and Washington.

“There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war,” Rubio told reporters in Bahrain’s capital Manama.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities have regularly rejected the demand for a withdrawal from Donbas.

Kyiv has also pushed for post-war security guarantees from Western allies against Russia, though Moscow, for its part, has insisted that it seeks a comprehensive and legally binding security arrangement that goes beyond Ukraine.

Prospects of expected talks

The reported visit of the US envoys is expected to revive discussions on a peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

During an evening address last Tuesday, Zelenskyy declared that the Ukrainian side had presented the American side with proposals to end the conflict.

“America can help strengthen our defense, first and foremost through air defense, and it can put pressure on Russia so that its plans change – from prolonging the war to preparing to end it,” Zelenskyy said.

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said on Aug. 10 in an interview with Tass that Moscow is open to any constructive proposals that take into account Moscow's legitimate interests and renewed Russia’s commitment to the “understandings” in Alaska.

He also rejected the “freezing” of the Ukraine war without addressing its “root causes,” while defining US rhetoric and actions as “contradictory.”​​​​​​​

New poll found a majority of US citizens concerned about the US war on Iran.

The approval rating of United States President Donald Trump has fallen to the lowest level of his presidency, with an overwhelming majority of Americans concerned that the US-Israel war on Iran will last a long time.

Just 33 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s job performance, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll. The approval rating is the lowest ever during this term and matches the lowest seen in December 2017 during his first term.

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The poll, conducted over the course of four days, found 64 percent of Americans disapproved of how he is handling his job.

The slide in polling figures comes as an overwhelming majority of Americans are concerned by the continuing war on Iran. Consumers have seen the price of fuels rise dramatically since the war began in February, with the cost of gasoline [petrol] up nearly a third compared to a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association.

Trump, who campaigned on promises to keep inflation in check and avoid long-lasting wars, initially pledged that the conflict with Iran would take a few weeks. He argued the war was the only way to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon that could threaten the world. But Iran has proved resilient and has kept the oil and gas export trade through the Strait of Hormuz largely bottled up even as the conflict has cooled.

On Friday, Trump told a rally of supporters that paying “a tiny little bit more for your gasoline” is worth the cost of ensuring “a very evil country,” meaning Iran, could not have a nuclear weapon.

Some 80 percent of Americans, including 87 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans, think US involvement in Iran “will go on for an extended period of time”, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Just 16 percent said the conflict would likely end in a few weeks.

A Politico poll recently showed just a third of self-identified Make America Great Again (MAGA) voters, typically the most unquestioning of Trump’s base, felt the economic costs of the war with Iran were worth it.

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A curated weekday guide to major news and developments over the last 24 hours. Here’s today’s news:

IRAN WAR 

President Trump told reporters yesterday that Iran is unlikely to agree to the deal he wants and called for its surrender, as he ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement that expired yesterday. Trump also threatened to “bomb the shit out of [Oman]” if it obstructed efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid reports that Iran and Oman are close to reaching an agreement on managing the strait. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran will shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war have stalled, adding that Tehran would conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the U.S. naval blockade of the strait if diplomacy failed. Luke Broadwater reports for the New York Times; Trevor Hunnicutt and Katharine Jackson report for Reuters.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged Trump in a call to pursue talks with Iran to de-escalate tensions between the two countries and offered Ankara’s support for peace efforts, the Turkish presidency said today. Reuters reports.  

The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations received a report today that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. Reuters reports.  

Two drones targeted the office of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s prime minister and the home of the region’s intelligence chief in northern Iraq yesterday, the KRG security agency said. The agency added that the attack was launched from Iranian territory, without clarifying whether the drones had hit their target. An Iranian news agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Iraqi counterpart in a phone call that there is no information indicating the attack originated in Iran. Reuters reports.  

Russia is shipping drone components, ammunition, and TNT to Iran through the Caspian Sea to help Tehran replenish stockpiles damaged during the war, according to a European government document obtained by NBC News. Dan De Luce reports. 

IRAN WAR – YEMEN 

Yemen’s Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree yesterday claimed that the Houthis attacked a Saudi military ship and four escort vessels in the Red Sea with missiles. Two sources from the Yemeni government told Reuters earlier in the day that the Houthis attacked an out-of-service ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with six missiles. Reuters reports.  

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk yesterday called on “all parties to de-escalate tensions and spare the Yemeni people from further misery.” Türk warned against a return to full-scale conflict following the Houthis’ deadliest attack in years, which killed 58 government troops, according to a military source. Gavin Blackburn reports for Euronews.  

IRAN WAR – LEBANON 

Israeli flags planted on the main coastal highway in southern Lebanon are a violation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon said yesterday. Reuters reports. 

IRAN WAR – OTHER DEVELOPMENTS 

Maj. Jason Watson, a U.S. airman arrested last month for calling for Trump’s removal over the Iran war, said in an interview yesterday that he was willing to accept military punishment for his dissent. During the interview, Watson characterized the war in Iran as an act of U.S. aggression and compared the U.S. military actions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Watson could be punished for “disloyal statements” or “contemptuous words” against the commander in chief and high-ranking government officials. Minho Kim reports for the New York Times.  

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR 

Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner met yesterday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which resulted in an agreement to establish two working groups for disarmament and public health in Gaza, according to the Board of Peace and Netanyahu’s office. Netanyahu’s office added that the talks were “deep and constructive,” while the Board of Peace said, “it was agreed that there will be no [Israeli military] redeployment from Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed.” Asked if Israel had committed to the U.S. plan for Gaza, a spokesperson for the Board of Peace Director Nicolay Mladenov said it was a “work in progress.” Daniella Cheslow reports for POLITICO; Julia Frankel, Samy Magdy, and Wafaa Shurafa report for AP News.  

A U.S. official told Axios that much of the near 4-hour meeting between Kushner and Netanyahu focused on explaining the Board of Peace plan, clarifying misconceptions, and addressing Netanyahu’s concerns. The official said that Kushner also told Netanyahu that the United States does not expect Israel to refrain from taking action against imminent threats by Hamas. However, while Kushner and Netanyahu were meeting, Trump told Fox News that Israel should stop its airstrikes in Gaza, seeing as Hamas has agreed to disarm. Barak Ravid reports; Feliz Solomon and Summer Said report for the Wall Street Journal. 

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR 

A Russian missile attack today killed 10 people in a village in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Ukrainian authorities said. Reuters reports.  

Ukraine launched 620 drones at Moscow and surrounding areas overnight, according to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. Sobyanin added that Russian forces downed 180 drones and emergency services were working at crash sites, without going into detail on any casualties or damage. Reuters reports.  

Russia’s embassy in London warned Britain today that it would face consequences for supplying drones to Ukraine which are used to target Russian territory. The embassy was responding to a report in The Times over the weekend which said British-made drones had been used for long-range strikes against Russia for the first time. Reuters reports.

OTHER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS 

Zambia’s president, Hakainde Hichilema, was declared the winner of a second term early this morning. Hichilema won 60 percent of the vote, according to the Electoral Commission of Zambia. John Eligon reports for the New York Times.  

Eight Israeli airstrikes hit the Abu al-Duhur military airbase in northwestern Syria early this morning, targeting the runway and storage facilities, according to a military source. The Israeli military had not commented on the attacks at the time of writing. Reuters reports. 

Indian security agencies arrested more than 200 “terror operatives” linked to Pakistan, preventing potential “subversive attacks” around India’s Independence Day last week, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah said yesterday. Pakistan’s foreign affairs ministry said it “strongly” rejects the allegations made by Shah, and called them “propaganda.” Reuters reports.  

TECH DEVELOPMENTS 

Nvidia said yesterday that it had agreed to spend as much as $105 billion to back one of the world’s largest data centers, which is being built in Ohio and will be leased to OpenAI. Kalley Huang reports for the New York Times.  

Trump-backed World Liberty Financial is collaborating with Hong Kong-based venture, World Claw, which offers AI models developed by Chinese companies. A Reuters review found that 43 of the 90 models available through WorldClaw’s website were developed by Alibaba, Baidu, Z.ai and other Chinese technology companies the Trump administration says pose risks to national security and intellectual property. Lawrence Delevigne reports.

U.S. FOREIGN AFFAIRS 

A U.S. Navy destroyer lost power for four days in the South China Sea last month, according to a U.S. 7th Fleet statement. The crew lost access to drinkable water, running toilets, and air conditioning. The Navy did not explain why it had not disclosed the incident until now. Tara Copp reports for the Washington Post.

Trump yesterday defended his move to cut U.S.- South Korea military exercises, citing a lack of help with the Strait of Hormuz. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said today that a solid alliance with the United States underpins national security, but also called for stronger independent defence capabilities in light of Trump’s recent statements. The U.S. Korea commander has begun discussions on scaling back joint South Korea drills. Cleve R. Wootson Jr. reports for the Washington Post; Hyung-Jin Kim reports for AP News; Joyce Lee and Kyu-Seok Shim report for Reuters.

U.S. IMMIGRATION DEVELOPMENTS  

Democratic members of Congress held a public forum yesterday on the fatal ICE shooting of Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Maine last month. The Department of Homeland Security has said the inspector general would investigate an agent’s decision to open fire. Maia Spoto and Murray Carpenter report for the New York Times.

ICE looks to shield local police from financial consequences if they are accused of on-duty misconduct during immigration arrests. According to a DHS document published on Friday, the agency proposes to subsidise liability insurance for state and local officers who are trained and deputized to enforce federal immigration laws. Ryan J. Foley reports for AP News.

U.S. DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 

Luigi Mangione’s state trial has been postponed following his guilty plea on federal charges. The Judge issued the order following requests from Mangione’s lawyers to dismiss state charges on grounds of double jeopardy. Torey Van Oot reports for Axios.

Palm Beach County voting records show Trump voted by mail in Florida’s Republican Primary this month, despite his efforts to limit the practice across the country. Gary Fineout reports for POLITICO.

The Justice Department plans to deploy a thousand monitors to the polls in the fall, according to Assistant U.S. Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon. In an interview with Bloomberg yesterday, Dhillon said the deployment is “probably going to be a historic number for a Republican administration.” She also claimed that the DOJ is part of the executive branch and reports to the president. Patrick Marley reports for the Washington Post.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION LITIGATION

On Monday, the Supreme Court again rejected Trump’s request to review his civil conviction for sexual abuse and defamation against E. Jean Carroll. Trump paid $5 million to Carroll following the court’s initial rejection of an appeal in July. Ann E. Marimow reports for the New York Times.

A federal appeals court yesterday rejected Trump’s strategy of picking U.S. Attorneys. The appointments aimed to circumvent congressional confirmation through the selection of interim prosecutors. The judgment states that the Attorney General cannot “create a de facto Acting U.S. Attorney by delegating all of the functions and duties of the U.S. Attorney to someone else.” Danny Hakim reports for the New York Times.

A federal judge yesterday blocked plans to move FBI headquarters to Washington. The ruling also found that Trump’s administration had illegally tossed out previously approved plans to build new facilities nearby in Maryland. Jonathan J. Cooper reports for AP News.

Did you miss this? Stay up-to-date with our Litigation Tracker: Legal Challenges to Trump Administration Actions.

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ICYMI: Yesterday on Just Security

No Warrant, No Problem: Administrative Subpoena Powers and an Outdated Fourth Amendment Doctrine

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FEATURED IMAGE: WASHINGTON - JANUARY 23: Clouds move as the sun sets against the west front of the United States Capitol building January 23, 2007 in Washington, DC. U.S. President George W. Bush is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union speech before a joint meeting of Congress at 9:00 PM Eastern. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Russian attacks reportedly killed 10 people and injured eight in Ukraine’s Kharkiv.

Ukraine launched more than 620 drones at Moscow overnight in what appeared to be its largest such attack in years, while Russian attacks killed 10 people in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 180 of the 620 drones heading towards Moscow were “destroyed” by Russian defences over the capital region between Monday evening and ‌5am (02:00 GMT) on Tuesday. He said 17 more drones were shot down en route to the capital later.

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Russia’s state-run news agency TASS described the barrage as the largest drone attack on Moscow in the past two years.

The drone attack wounded three people, including a 10-year-old girl, Moscow region’s Governor Andrey Vorobyov said on Telegram. He said the “most serious consequences” were reported in the Pavlovsky Posad district, where a house burned down. Several more homes and a guesthouse were damaged in Bogorodsky district, he added.

A warehouse east of Moscow belonging to e-commerce giant Wildberries was damaged in Tuesday’s drone assault. In a statement, the company said its logistics complex sustained “minor damage” after “debris hit the wall of the building”.

Ukraine has struck multiple Wildberries warehouses in recent weeks, saying the company supplies components for Russian drones.

Ten killed in Kharkiv

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian air force reported shooting down or suppressing 111 of 147 “enemy” drones overnight.

Kharkiv’s regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said preliminary information indicated 10 people were killed and eight injured in the Pechenihy settlement.

Five others, including a nine-year-old boy, were injured in the city of Izyum, he added.

Elsewhere, Russian drones sparked fires and damaged buildings in Kyiv region’s Brovary city, including an office building and warehouses, said Mayor Ihor Sapozhko.

With front-line fighting at a near standstill and talks frozen, Ukraine and Russia have significantly stepped up long-distance attacks, pushing the civilian death toll to its highest levels since the war’s first months in 2022.

In July alone, 437 civilians were killed in Ukraine, the highest monthly toll since May 2022, according to a United Nations tally.

Russian authorities reported 79 civilians killed in Ukrainian attacks in July, up from the previous month.